Employment and Gubernatorial Elections during the Gilded Age

Jac Heckelman

Economics and Politics, 1998, vol. 10, issue 3, 297-309

Abstract: The theory of political business cycles predicts economies will experience a short‐run expansion during an election period. Cross‐sectional evidence from 1870, 1880, 1890, 1900, and 1910, does not reveal statistically significant differences in gainful employment rates between states with and without a gubernatorial election in that year. Pooled regression analysis suggests gubernatorial elections are positively correlated with the state employment rate, but an annual fixed effect model designed to account for differences over time in the measurement of gainful employment mitigates this conclusion.

Date: 1998
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