Election Surprises and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Michelle Garfinkel, Amihai Glazer and Jaewoo Lee

Economics and Politics, 1999, vol. 11, issue 3, 255-274

Abstract: This papers shows that unexpected election results explain some of the unexpected variation in foreign exchange rates. The result is based on an event study which examines the behavior of the size of forecast errors implied by futures contracts for exchange rates around elections. Though elections can produce large unexpected effects on exchange rates, the effects on forecast errors are short‐lived. [ JEL codes: D72, F31.]

Date: 1999
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00061

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Working Paper: Election Surprises and Exchange rate Uncertainty (1997)
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