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Reconciling Observed Tariffs and the Median Voter Model

Swati Dhingra

Economics and Politics, 2014, vol. 26, issue 3, 483-504

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="ecpo12045-abs-0001">

Median voter theory applied to trade policy predicts positive tariffs in capital-abundant countries and negative tariffs in labor-abundant countries. Negative tariffs are rare, and this paper reconciles the median voter theory with observed protectionism across countries. By considering large countries, I show the optimal tariff is a sum of the median voter component and a positive term of trade component. Positive terms of trade effects raise tariffs in all countries, and can overcome the negative median voter component in labor-abundant countries. Testing the tariff prediction with cross-section and panel data from the 1990s, I show the median voter component is negative in labor-abundant countries and positive in capital-abundant countries. As expected, terms of trade effects raise tariffs across all countries and are stronger among nonmembers of the WTO.

Date: 2014
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Working Paper: Reconciling Observed Tariffs and the Median Voter Model (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Reconciling observed tariffs and the median voter model (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Reconciling observed tariffs and the median voter model (2014) Downloads
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