Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections
Martin Lausegger
Economics and Politics, 2021, vol. 33, issue 1, 172-204
Abstract:
This paper explores how elections impact stock markets across diverse political institutions. I argue that electoral and party systems impact the fragmentation, credibility, and predictability of electoral information, influencing levels of uncertainty resolved by elections and leading to distinct stock market reactions. First, elections in majoritarian electoral systems produce larger cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) than elections in proportional representation systems. Second, the weaker institutionalized a party systems is, the larger are the CARs around elections. Third, these two institutional variables interact. Elections in majoritarian (proportional representation) systems with weak (strong) party system institutionalizations will have particularly large (small) CARs. I formally derive these propositions, conduct event studies of the impact of 87 elections on SMs in 21 countries from 1999 to 2016, and analyze four case studies.
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12169
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:33:y:2021:i:1:p:172-204
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0954-1985
Access Statistics for this article
Economics and Politics is currently edited by Peter Rosendorff
More articles in Economics and Politics from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().