PROBLEMS IN MODELING COMPLEX DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS: THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENT OF THE 1850s

Robert Fogel

Economics and Politics, 1992, vol. 4, issue 3, 215-254

Abstract: This paper argues that a model of sequential choice is superior to the standard rational choice model in explaining a process as complex and dynamic as the political realignment of the 1850s. Part 1 sketches the facts and processes that need to be encompassed by a model and identifies key branching points. Part 2 describes an appropriate model of sequential choice and discusses procedures for estimating transition probabilities and the impact of key variables on these transition probabilities. Part 3 identifies implicit assumptions of rational choice theory that limit its usefulness.

Date: 1992
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1992.tb00086.x

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Working Paper: Problems in Modeling Complex Dynamic interactions: The Political Realignment of the 1850s (1993)
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