The Forecasting Potential of the ACMA Survey

P. Tompkinson, W. G. W. Magill and A. J. Hagger

The Economic Record, 1979, vol. 55, issue 4, 339-346

Abstract: This paper attempts to assess the quality of the forecasts of three key economic aggregates that are obtainable from forecasting equations involving up to four period distributed lags of ‘relevant’ diffusion indexes, with and without a lagged dependent variable. The diffusion indexes are constructed from information published in the regular Survey of Industrial Trends by the Bank of New South Wales in conjunction with the Confederation of Australian Industry. Forecasts are evaluated by a set of four summary statistics and the results suggest that the published information has considerable forecasting potential.

Date: 1979
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