A Dynamic Model of Cyclical Labour Force Participation

Roger J. Bowden

The Economic Record, 1980, vol. 56, issue 155, 362-373

Abstract: Time series studies of labour force participation tend to be rather ad hoc regressions of participation rates on unemployment. The author builds an explicit model of flows into and out of the labour force in which flows are forced by important cyclical variables such as vacancies and duration of unemployment as well as the unemployment rate. The resulting nonlinear model is fitted for Australian data. Among the conclusions of interest is that discouragement eflects are not constant but vary according to the stage of the business cycle. Over moderate ranges of unemployment, discouragement is less than that found by other authors.

Date: 1980
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