An Empirical Analysis of Australian Strike Activity: Estimating the Industrial Relations Effect of the First Three Years of the Prices and Incomes Accord

John J. Beggs and Bruce Chapman

The Economic Record, 1987, vol. 63, issue 1, 46-60

Abstract: Australian strike activity war relatively low in the 1983(2)‐1986(1) period. Some part of this experience is attributable to changes in the macroeconomic environment and some is a consequence of improvements in industrial relations. This paper attempts to determine the role of each by estimating econometric models for the 1959(3)‐1983(1) period and forecasting indicators of strike activity over the subsequent three years. We find that working days lost per unionist decreased because of macroeconomic conditions, but that these variables explain less than half of the actual decline. This suggests that, for the initial three‐year period of its institution, the Accord helped deliver a favorable industrial relations environment, a situation that is not necessarily long‐lasting. More generally, the results show strike activity to be pro‐cyclical and influenced by profits and inflation.

Date: 1987
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