Predicting the Monthly and Annual Current Account Balance from Provisional Data

Ronald Bewley and Thomas Parry

The Economic Record, 1991, vol. 67, issue 4, 317-330

Abstract: This paper uses provisional monthly data to predict the one‐month‐ahead and one‐year‐ahead current account balance. Single‐equation methods are compared to an eight‐equation VAR model that utilizes the Box‐Tiao (1977) modifications. It is found that the single‐equation model of the current account out‐performs the system method for the short‐ term but the positions are reversed for the annual forecast

Date: 1991
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1991.tb02561.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:67:y:1991:i:4:p:317-330

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