 The Lags of Monetary PolicyDavid Gruen, John Romalis and Naveen Chandra The Economic Record, 1999, vol. 75, issue 3, 280-294 Abstract: The length of the transmission lags from monetary pblicy to output has been the subject of much research over the years, but there are serious problems in isolating the lags with any precision. This paper uses a simple model of Australian output to estimate the length of the lags, and then examines how attempts to grapple with the estimation problems might change the results. We estimate that output growth falls by about one‐third of one per cent in both the first and second years after a one percentage point rise in the short‐term real interest rate, and by about one‐sixth of one per cent in the third year. This implies an average lag of about five or six quarters in monetary policy's impact on output growth. Each of these estimates is, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications for policy of these relatively long and uncertain lags. Finally, we find no evidence that the average lag from monetary policy to output growth has become any shorter in the 1990s. Date: 1999 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:75:y:1999:i:3:p:280-294 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article The Economic Record is currently edited by Paul Miller, Glenn Otto and Martin Richardson More articles in The Economic Record from The Economic Society of Australia Contact information at EDIRC. |
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