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Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?

A. J. Hagger and Nicolaas Groenewold

The Economic Record, 2003, vol. 79, issue 246, 324-335

Abstract: We urge macroeconomists to abandon the ‘natural rate’ as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy‐making.

Date: 2003
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.00107

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