Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003

Peter Abelson, Roselyne Joyeux, George Milunovich and Demi Chung

The Economic Record, 2005, vol. 81, issue s1, S96-S103

Abstract: This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long‐run equilibrium model that shows the real long‐run economic determinants of house prices and a short‐run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short‐run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters.

Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (78)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00243.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:81:y:2005:i:s1:p:s96-s103

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0013-0249

Access Statistics for this article

The Economic Record is currently edited by Paul Miller, Glenn Otto and Martin Richardson

More articles in The Economic Record from The Economic Society of Australia Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().