Shades of empire: Evidence from Swedish and Polish–Lithuanian partitions in the Baltics

Theocharis N. Grigoriadis and Alise Vitola

Economic History Review, 2026, vol. 79, issue 1, 342-376

Abstract: In this study, we explore the long‐run effects of Swedish and Polish–Lithuanian imperial legacies in the Baltic region. Using a robust regression discontinuity design, we identify persistent differences in socio‐economic development across the South Livonia–Courland and the South Livonia–Lettgallia borders that emerged as a result of the Altmark Truce (1629) between Sweden and Poland–Lithuania. We find that there is a positive post‐imperial persistence of the Swedish legacy that explains modern Baltic development. Our results are robust to the RD estimation of the post‐1629 Swedish–Swedish border between North Livonia and Estland, the Pale of Settlement, spatial noise, placebo outcomes, and the introduction of a quadratic polynomial, as well as different bandwidths. Higher historical shares of Lutherans, Germans, and landowners may predict higher levels of contemporary socio‐economic development in the Swedish partition of South Livonia than in the Polish–Lithuanian partitions of Courland and Lettgallia.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:79:y:2026:i:1:p:342-376

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