 Credibility costs in the monetary integration gameDamien Besancenot and Radu Vranceanu The Economics of Transition, 2003, vol. 11, issue 4, 727-741 Abstract: Euro candidates are expected to maintain the value of their currency within the fluctuation band of the new exchange rate mechanism for at least two years. This paper highlights some unpleasant macroeconomic effects that could occur during this interval. The problem is cast as a two‐stage sequential game between private agents and the government of the applicant country. The policy‐maker decides whether to devaluate the domestic currency or not at two distinct dates; it makes a last choice just before accession to the monetary union. Under an assumption of incomplete information of private agents about the government's priorities on inflation and economic activity, the game presents a hybrid perfect Bayesian equilibrium. In the pooling configuration, an initial policy of zero devaluation does not signal the final devaluation decision. As private agents cannot completely rule out the risk of a ‘last devaluation’, a premium adds to interest rates and entails a systematic output loss. Date: 2003 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:etrans:v:11:y:2003:i:4:p:727-741 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article The Economics of Transition is currently edited by Philippe Aghion and Wendy Carlin More articles in The Economics of Transition from The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Contact information at EDIRC. |
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