Business Cycles and Net Buying Pressure in the S&P 500 Futures Options

Kam C. Chan, Carl R. Chen and Peter P. Lung

European Financial Management, 2010, vol. 16, issue 4, 624-657

Abstract: We analyse the cyclical behaviour and intraday pattern of net buying pressure in the S&P 500 futures options market. The results suggest that the net buying pressure of puts is counter†cyclical and is more intense during contraction periods. The trading profits for selling put options during contraction periods thus far exceed those during expansion periods. Net buying pressure also exhibits an intraday pattern. Trading profits in the early trading sessions are higher than those for the rest of the day. In addition, we show that hourly†basis hedging yields smaller profits than daily†basis hedging, which suggests that the trading profits based on daily†basis hedging may contain a risk premium associated with discretely rebalanced ‘risk†free’ option portfolios.

Date: 2010
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