Expected versus Ex Post Profitability in the Cross‐Section of Industry Returns

Andrew Detzel, Philipp Schaberl and Jack Strauss

Financial Management, 2019, vol. 48, issue 2, 505-536

Abstract: Asset pricing theory predicts a positive cross‐sectional relation between expected profitability and expected returns. However, empirical studies typically use lagged ex post profitability as a proxy for expected profitability. In this article, we use out‐of‐sample combination forecasts to estimate expected industry‐level operating profit, gross profit, operating cash flow, and net income. We then construct real‐time industry‐rotation strategies based on high and low expected profitability. For each measure except gross profit, these predicted‐profitability strategies earn significant alpha net of transaction costs and outperform strategies based on ex post profitability.

Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12231

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:48:y:2019:i:2:p:505-536

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0046-3892

Access Statistics for this article

Financial Management is currently edited by William G. Christie

More articles in Financial Management from Financial Management Association International Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().