Estimating Early Exercise Premiums on Gold and Copper Options Using a Multifactor Model and Density Matched Lattices

Jimmy E. Hilliard and Jitka Hilliard

The Financial Review, 2015, vol. 50, issue 1, 27-56

Abstract: We use the standard geometric Brownian motion augmented by jumps to describe the spot underlying and mean regressive models of interest rates and convenience yields as state variables for gold and copper prices. Estimates of parameters of the diffusion processes are obtained by the Kalman filter. Using these estimates, jump parameters are estimated in the second stage by least squares. Early exercise premia on puts and calls are computed using a lattice with probabilities assigned by the density matching technique. We find that while deep in the money options have greater absolute early exercise premiums, the early exercise premium is roughly constant as a percent of option price. Our findings also confirm that gold behaves like an investment asset and copper behaves like a commodity.

Date: 2015
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