Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany

Gebhardt Kirschgässner and Marcel Savioz ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gebhard Kirchgässner

German Economic Review, 2001, vol. 2, issue 4, 339-365

Abstract: Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four‐quarter‐ahead forecasts for real GDP growth. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, other monetary indicators like real M1 or short‐run interest rates clearly outperform forecasts which are based on interest rate spreads. This holds for within as well as for ex‐post predictions. The same holds for the development after 1992. Moreover, it is shown that simple forecasts based on M1 or on short‐run interest rates outperform the common biannual GNP forecasts of the group of German economic research institutes.

Date: 2001
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