American Public Opinion on US Responses to Russia's Nuclear Threats in Ukraine

Kaitlin Peach, Andrew Fox, Kuhika Gupta, Joseph Ripberger, Cheyenne Black, Tristan Winkle and Hank Jenkins‐Smith

Global Policy, 2025, vol. 16, issue 2, 235-245

Abstract: Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats have reshaped the global nuclear landscape, potentially altering public attitudes toward nuclear deterrence and weapons use. This article examines American preferences for United States responses—nuclear, conventional, or nonmilitary—to three hypothetical scenarios involving Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Drawing on data from the 2022 National Security Survey by the Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, we find that the American public generally favors conventional military responses over nuclear options, even in the face of increased nuclear threats. Qualitative analysis reveals that respondents primarily apply a “logic of consequences,” prioritizing strategic military utility over ethical or normative concerns when considering responses. These findings have significant implications for US nuclear policy and the theoretical discourse on nuclear nonuse.

Date: 2025
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