Unveiling various spatial patterns of determinants of hukou transfer intentions in China: A multi‐scale geographically weighted regression approach

Xin Lao and Hengyu Gu

Growth and Change, 2020, vol. 51, issue 4, 1860-1876

Abstract: As the floating population has become a vital issue influencing China's economic and social development and aroused broad concern, many scholars have paid attention to the factors that influence settlement intentions of the floating population, while their spatial differences are usually neglected in extant studies. To rectify this situation, this study employs a multi‐scale geographically weighted regression model to investigate the spatial pattern of determinants on hukou transfer intentions of the floating population, based on the data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2016. The results demonstrate that the effects of various determinants present different spatial patterns: part of significance pattern (the average residence time in destination cities, the ratio of rural hukou holders, the number of flows, the ratio of family income to family expenditure, the geographical location), the “East‐West” pattern (the ratio of self‐employed migrants, the average wage of employed workers), the “Southwest‐Northeast” pattern (the ratio of migrants in the secondary industry, the ratio of sharing town employees' social insurance, the ratio of floating population accompanied by children in destination cities, and the population density of municipal districts). Cities of different conditions should formulate different policies that are sensitive to their contexts.

Date: 2020
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