On the synchronization of the business cycles of Mexican states and its relationship to their economic complexity, 2000–2014

Manuel Gómez‐Zaldívar and Alejandra Llanos‐Guerrero

Growth and Change, 2021, vol. 52, issue 3, 1576-1592

Abstract: In a recent study, Mejía‐Reyes, Díaz‐Carreño, and Aroca analyzed the synchronization of the business cycles of the states of Mexico. Using an extended gravitational model, they propose and test a set of variables to explain the co‐movement of those cycles. Following on from their work, this paper proposes that one variable in particular, economic complexity, not only explains the synchronization of the business cycles of Mexican states but, in fact, also does a better job at explaining it on its own than the entire set of seven variables proposed by Mejía‐Reyes et al. (2019). The paper provides a more parsimonious specification to explain the co‐movement of the states’ business cycles by using a single variable that contains information on their relative productive structures.

Date: 2021
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