The Impact of Economic Growth Targets on Environmental Pollution: A Study From Chinese Cities

Yicheng Zhou, Zihan Zhang and Boqiang Lin ()

Growth and Change, 2025, vol. 56, issue 1

Abstract: China's economic growth target (EGT) embodies the typical characteristics of extensive development model. Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2004 to 2019, this paper examines the impact of EGT on pollution emissions. The results show that China's EGT has significantly increased environmental pollution. Especially before 2013, in order to speed up economic growth and cope with the pressure of the financial crisis, various regions tend to set higher EGT, leading to the aggravation of environmental pollution. After 2013, the promoting effect of EGT on environmental pollution is significantly weakened. Urban heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of EGT on environmental pollution is different in different cities. The promotion effect of the EGT on environmental pollution is more evident in the western, northeastern, non‐administrative center and resource‐based cities. The industrial structure, technical intensity of industry and effective allocation of production factors are important influencing channels for EGT to affect environmental pollution. Therefore, properly handling the contradiction between economic growth pressure and environmental governance is the key to China's sustainable economic development.

Date: 2025
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