Uncertainty Quantification in Life Cycle Assessments: Exploring Distribution Choice and Greater Data Granularity to Characterize Product Use

Stephen A. Ross and Lynette Cheah

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2019, vol. 23, issue 2, 335-346

Abstract: The life cycle environmental profile of energy‐consuming products is dominated by the products’ use stage. Variation in real‐world product use can therefore yield large differences in the results of life cycle assessment (LCA). Adequate characterization of input parameters is paramount for uncertainty quantification and has been a challenge to wider adoption of the LCA method. After emphasis in recent years on methodological development, data development has become the primary focus again. Pervasive sensing presents the opportunity to collect rich data sets and improve profiling of use‐stage parameters. Illustrating a data‐driven approach, we examine energy use in domestic cooling systems, focusing on climate change as the impact category. Specific objectives were to examine: (1) how characterization of the use stage by different probability distributions and (2) how characterizing data aggregated at successively higher granularity affects LCA modeling results and the uncertainty in output. Appliance‐level electricity data were sourced from domestic residences for 3 years. Use‐stage variables were propagated in a stochastic model and analyses simulated by Monte Carlo procedure. Although distribution choice did not necessarily significantly impact the estimated output, there were differences in the estimated uncertainty. Characterization of use‐stage power consumption in the model at successively higher data granularity reduced the output uncertainty with diminishing returns. Results therefore justify the collection of high granularity data sets representing the life cycle use stage of high‐energy products. The availability of such data through proliferation of pervasive sensing presents increasing opportunities to better characterize data and increase confidence in results of LCA.

Date: 2019
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