Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure

Qian Zhang, Christopher Kennedy, Tao Wang, Wendong Wei, Jiashuo Li and Lei Shi

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2020, vol. 24, issue 6, 1352-1363

Abstract: China's 2050 high renewable energy penetration (HREP) scenario is a roadmap for deep decarbonization. This promising strategy, deploying wind and solar energy, will also reshape other infrastructure sectors. With decarbonization, not only can capital be diverted away from fossil fuel infrastructure toward green power generation, but considerable savings in future transport infrastructure sectors could be achieved because fossil fuels no longer need to be transported. Here, we conduct a material flow analysis with a focus on the central role of transportation to examine the interlinkages of coal and steel flows in China's infrastructure sectors between 1985, 2015, and 2050. We define the coal and steel nexus to be a system perspective that captures the interdependence and the critical linkages between these two resources. Our results show that the coal and steel nexus in China strengthened in the past three decades but could face transitional changes to 2050. The peak time of both coal and steel demand for China is expected to come before 2030. Consequentially, the volume of rail freight for the carriage of three main types of bulk cargo (coal, iron ores, and steel products) declines from ∼2,000 megatons (Mt) in 2015 to ∼700 Mt in 2050 under the HREP scenario with the two‐fold planned growth of railway infrastructure. However, investment in cleaner energy and steelmaking technologies will help China mainly rely on secondary steel resources to maintain domestic demand in 2050, further reducing the demand for coal and iron ores.

Date: 2020
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