How do different hydrogen and emission allowance price scenarios shape the cost‐effective energy transition in Germany's process industries?

Hendrik Scharf

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2025, vol. 29, issue 5, 1583-1600

Abstract: This paper investigates future energy requirements; amounts of carbon dioxide needed, emitted, or captured; and capital and operating expenses in Germany's process industries derived from a techno‐economic evaluation of production methods under various scenarios. These methods include maintaining conventional production, adopting direct electrification, or implementing hydrogen‐based technologies. Scenarios vary the assumptions on hydrogen and carbon dioxide emission allowance prices for 2035 and 2045. Which production methods are cost‐effective, and therefore assumed to be implemented in the scenarios, depends on marginal abatement costs of carbon dioxide emissions across industries. For 2035, results show that only very low hydrogen prices and emission allowance prices above €200 per metric ton drive significant adoption of low‐carbon production methods, with hydrogen demand ranging from nearly zero to 238 TWh and electricity demand from 54 to 197 TWh. Scenarios for 2045 assume full defossilization, with hydrogen demand ranging between 267 and 419 TWh and electricity requirements between 163 and 301 TWh. Across all scenarios analyzing 2045, 263 TWh of hydrogen are used as a reactant, a reductant, or for metallurgical purposes, making this demand portion, given the lack of other defossilization options, unavoidable when aiming for complete defossilization while maintaining domestic production. Additionally, the paper regionalizes selected scenario results based on site‐specific data. The regionalization reveals a strong concentration of high hydrogen demands for use as a reactant and reductant at only a few sites, posing challenges for integration into the energy infrastructure, while hydrogen used for process heating shows a more decentralized distribution.

Date: 2025
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