GDP growth forecasts and information flows: Is there evidence of overreactions?

J. Daniel Aromi

International Finance, 2018, vol. 21, issue 2, 122-139

Abstract: The association between GDP growth forecasts and past information flows is evaluated for a sample of 49 countries during the period 1990–2014. The analysis exploits an extensive collection of forecasts available through IMF's historical database. The empirical results indicate a robust association between information arrival and subsequent mean forecast errors (the average difference between forecast and realization). Consistent with the overreaction hypothesis, more positive information is followed by higher mean forecast errors. The association is documented for multiple metrics of past information flows: growth performance, a novel metric of press sentiment, and lagged forecast errors. When advanced and emerging economies are differentiated, the regularity is detected for both groups but is stronger in the case of emerging economies.

Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12126

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:intfin:v:21:y:2018:i:2:p:122-139

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1367-0271

Access Statistics for this article

International Finance is currently edited by Benn Steil

More articles in International Finance from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().