Relaxed Credit Standards in the U.S. Housing Boom: Changes in Risk Characteristics of Mortgage Recipients

Seda Durguner

International Review of Finance, 2021, vol. 21, issue 1, 208-254

Abstract: This paper examines components of credit risk and how their ability to predict the interface between households and mortgage market changed under the relaxed lending standards prevailing during the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s. Using data from the Federal Reserve Board's 1998 and 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances, the paper evaluates changes between 1998 and 2007 in the significance of credit risk characteristics in explaining three variables regarding the purchase of a primary residence by households in low‐, moderate‐, and high‐income groups: the loan‐to‐value ratio of the purchase mortgage, the likelihood of purchase, and the price paid. The study also analyzes the extent to which the period saw increases in the values of those three variables. The findings strongly suggest a decline in the ability of credit risk characteristics in predicting the interface between households and mortgage market over the period.

Date: 2021
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