FACTOR MODELS AND TIMEâ€ VARYING PARAMETER FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION: A SURVEY
Lasha Kavtaradze () and
Manouchehr Mokhtari ()
Journal of Economic Surveys, 2018, vol. 32, issue 2, 302-334
A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factorâ€ based and timeâ€ varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:32:y:2018:i:2:p:302-334
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0950-0804
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Journal of Economic Surveys from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().