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The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization

Edwin J Elton, Martin J Gruber and Roni Michaely

Journal of Finance, 1990, vol. 45, issue 2, 629-42

Abstract: Empirical studies of the modern theories of bond pricing typically choose proxies for the state variables in a rather arbitrary fashion. This paper empirically analyzes the question of the optimal spot rates to use as state variables. The authors' findings indicate that the four-year spot rate serves as the best proxy in the one-state-variable model. In the case of the two-state-variables model, the six-year rate and eight-month rate are identified as best. Tests of the out-of-sample prediction ability indicate that their model is superior to F. R. Macaulay's duration model and alternative proxies for state variables. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

Date: 1990
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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