Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?

Peter Blair Henry

Journal of Finance, 2002, vol. 57, issue 4, 1617-1648

Abstract: The stock market appreciates by an average of 24 percent in real dollar terms when countries attempt to stabilize annual inflation rates that are greater than 40 percent. In contrast, the average market response is 0 when the prestabilization rate of inflation is less than 40 percent. These results suggest that the potential long‐run benefits of stabilization may dominate shortrun costs at high levels of inflation, but at low to moderate levels of inflation, benefits may be offset by costs in a present value sense. Stock market responses also help predict the change in inflation and output in the year following all 81 stabilization efforts.

Date: 2002
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