Capital Gains, Dividend Yields, and Expected Inflation

Eugene A. Pilotte

Journal of Finance, 2003, vol. 58, issue 1, 447-466

Abstract: One explanation for the negative relationship between short‐horizon stock returns and inflation is that inflation proxies (inversely) for expected future real output. In this paper, I examine the possibility that inflation also proxies for variation in real price/dividend ratios (excess returns). I show that when the covariance between real price/dividend ratios and inflation is nonzero, the relationship between returns and expected inflation differs for the two components of returns: dividend yields and capital gains returns. My empirical evidence demonstrates that dividend yields and capital gains are related differently to expected inflation in U.S. and foreign markets.

Date: 2003
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00530

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:1:p:447-466

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