Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole

John M. Griffin, Xiuqing Ji and J. Spencer Martin

Journal of Finance, 2003, vol. 58, issue 6, 2515-2547

Abstract: We examine whether macroeconomic risk can explain momentum profits internationally. Neither an unconditional model based on the Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) factors nor a conditional forecasting model based on lagged instruments provides any evidence that macroeconomic risk variables can explain momentum. In addition, momentum profits around the world are economically large and statistically reliable in both good and bad economic states. Further, these momentum profits reverse over 1‐ to 5‐year horizons, an action inconsistent with existing risk‐based explanations of momentum.

Date: 2003
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:6:p:2515-2547

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