Innovation, Growth, and Asset Prices

Howard Kung and Lukas Schmid

Journal of Finance, 2015, vol. 70, issue 3, 1001-1037

Abstract: type="main">

We examine the asset pricing implications of a production economy whose long-term growth prospects are endogenously determined by innovation and R&D. In equilibrium, R&D endogenously drives a small, persistent component in productivity that generates long-run uncertainty about economic growth. With recursive preferences, households fear that persistent downturns in economic growth are accompanied by low asset valuations and command high-risk premia in asset markets. Empirically, we find substantial evidence for innovation-driven low-frequency movements in aggregate growth rates and asset market valuations. In short, equilibrium growth is risky.

Date: 2015
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