Duration‐Driven Returns

Niels Gormsen and Eben Lazarus

Journal of Finance, 2023, vol. 78, issue 3, 1393-1447

Abstract: We propose a duration‐based explanation for the premia on major equity factors, including value, profitability, investment, low‐risk, and payout factors. These factors invest in firms that earn most of their cash flows in the near future and could therefore be driven by a premium on near‐future cash flows. We test this hypothesis using a novel data set of single‐stock dividend futures, which are claims on dividends of individual firms. Consistent with our hypothesis, the expected Capital Asset Pricing Model alpha on individual cash flows decreases in maturity within a firm, and the alpha is not related to the above characteristics when controlling for maturity.

Date: 2023
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https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13216

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