Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

Ting‐Heng Chu and Steve Swidler

Journal of Financial Research, 2002, vol. 25, issue 3, 353-366

Abstract: The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.

Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6803.00023

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:3:p:353-366

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0270-2592

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Financial Research is currently edited by Jayant Kale and Gerald Gay

More articles in Journal of Financial Research from Southern Finance Association Contact information at EDIRC., Southwestern Finance Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().