THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF USING REALIZED VOLATILITY IN FORECASTING FUTURE IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Wing Chan (), Ranjini Jha and Madhu Kalimipalli

Journal of Financial Research, 2009, vol. 32, issue 3, 231-259

Abstract: We examine the economic benefits of using realized volatility to forecast future implied volatility for pricing, trading, and hedging in the S&P 500 index options market. We propose an encompassing regression approach to forecast future implied volatility, and hence future option prices, by combining historical realized volatility and current implied volatility. Although the use of realized volatility results in superior performance in the encompassing regressions and out‐of‐sample option pricing tests, we do not find any significant economic gains in option trading and hedging strategies in the presence of transaction costs.

Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.2009.01249.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:32:y:2009:i:3:p:231-259

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0270-2592

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Financial Research is currently edited by Jayant Kale and Gerald Gay

More articles in Journal of Financial Research from Southern Finance Association Contact information at EDIRC., Southwestern Finance Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().