Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?

Stanimir Markov and Ane Tamayo

Journal of Accounting Research, 2006, vol. 44, issue 4, 725-761

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a rational learning‐based explanation for the predictability in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors documented in prior literature. In particular, we argue that the serial correlation pattern in analysts' quarterly earnings forecast errors is consistent with an environment in which analysts face parameter uncertainty and learn rationally about the parameters over time. Using simulations and real data, we show that the predictability evidence is more consistent with rational learning than with irrationality (fixation on a seasonal random walk model or some other dogmatic belief).

Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:joares:v:44:y:2006:i:4:p:725-761

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Journal of Accounting Research is currently edited by Philip G. Berger, Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, Haresh Sapra, Douglas J. Skinner, Rodrigo Verdi and Regina Wittenberg Moerman

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