Short‐term Extrapolation of the AIDS Epidemic

M. J. R. Healy and H. E. Tillett

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1988, vol. 151, issue 1, 50-61

Abstract: Monthly figures for the number of AIDS cases are extrapolated forwards for 2 years under various assumptions. The rate of increase is roughly exponential, the doubling time having remained roughly constant since mid‐1985 at around 14 months. The possibility of the doubling time increasing represents the major uncertainty in short‐term forecasting.

Date: 1988
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