The Epidemiology of HIV Infection: Variable Incubation Plus Infectious Periods and Heterogeneity in Sexual Activity

Roy M. Anderson

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1988, vol. 151, issue 1, 66-93

Abstract: The paper focuses on two topics of particular relevance to the study of the transmission dynamics of HIV, namely, variability in incubation and infectious periods and heterogeneity in sexual activity within homosexual and heterosexual communities in the United Kingdom. Simple deterministic models are developed to describe two episodes of infectiousness during the long and variable incubation period of AIDS. The significance of variable infectiousness to the course of the epidemic is assessed via reference to the basic reproductive rate of infection, R0, and the doubling time td, for the incidence of AIDS in the early stages of the epidemic. Recent surveys of rates of sexual partner change in homosexual and heterosexual communities are described and observed trends are discussed and compared. The paper ends with a discussion of data needs and research priorities.

Date: 1988
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