The Use of Sigmoids in Modelling and Forecasting Human Populations

R. Raeside

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1988, vol. 151, issue 3, 499-513

Abstract: The use of sigmoid trend models, particularly the logistic model, was once popular among demographers. However, by 1940 the approach had fallen out of favour, being criticized for giving poor results and having no theoretical validity, and it was considered that models of total population were of little practical interest, the main forecasting procedure adopted being the ‘bottom‐up cohort component’ method. In the light of poor forecasting performance from component methods, this paper reassesses the use of simple trend models. It is demonstrated that useful models can be obtained from which a model of the birth rate can be derived. When these models are recast in a recursive parameterization, it is shown that satisfactory forecasts can be obtained.

Date: 1988
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.2307/2982997

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:151:y:1988:i:3:p:499-513

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-985X

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A is currently edited by A. Chevalier and L. Sharples

More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().