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A Scoring System to Quantify Illness in Babies Under 6 Months of Age

T. J. Cole, C. J. Morley, A. J. Thornton, M. A. Fowler and P. H. Hewson

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1991, vol. 154, issue 2, 287-304

Abstract: Ordinal logistic regression analysis was used on a sample of 1007 babies under 6 months of age seen at home and in hospital to identify the symptoms and signs of serious illness. A model with seven symptoms and 12 signs was used as the basis for a scoring system where each symptom and sign was assigned an integer score proportional to its regression coefficient. A baby's illness score was then the sum of scores for any signs or symptoms that were present, asymptomatic babies scoring 0. The scoring system gave a sensitivity (score 13 or more) of 92.1%, specificity (score less than 8) of 98.3% and positive predictive value (score 20 or more) of 98.0% when applied to a notional community sample. The system has been made into a score card called Baby Check, designed for use by parents and health professionals to quantify the severity of a baby's illness. Baby Check indicates when the baby's condition warrants further assessment or treatment.

Date: 1991
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