The Influence of Opportunity on Aspirations Among Prospective University Entrants from Scottish Schools, 1970–88

Lindsay Paterson

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1992, vol. 155, issue 1, 37-60

Abstract: The paper shows that decisions by school‐leavers about applying to university are influenced by the chance that an application would be successful. Two tests are offered. The first compares different school qualification categories within each year: the greater the success rate among applications in a category, the greater is the propensity of pupils in that category to apply. The second test is over time: Aggregate reduction in the number of university places in the early 1980s, relative to the number of qualified school‐leavers, is shown to be associated with a fall in the propensity to apply, even after account has been taken of changing levels of school qualifications and changing patterns of course taking. Gender, parental education and father's occupational class have relatively small residual effects on the propensity to apply (conditional on qualifications and course taking), and these effects do not change over time. Two main policy conclusions are drawn: A modular structure of examinations in secondary school can encourage pupils to adjust their course taking to increase their chances of entering higher education, and a simple way of increasing applications to higher education would be to increase the number of places available.

Date: 1992
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