A Formula for the Allocation of Resources Based on Uncertain Predictions of Need

J. B. Copas

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1993, vol. 156, issue 1, 107-113

Abstract: The allocation of resources is often based on estimated need derived from an analysis of historical expenditure. Such estimates can be associated with substantial statistical uncertainty. This paper proposes a formula which allows for this uncertainty by shrinking the allocation from an estimate‐based allocation to a simple size‐based allocation. An example in educational expenditure is given.

Date: 1993
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