Estimating Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Incidence Accounting for Reporting Delay

D. De Angelis and W. R. Gilks

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1994, vol. 157, issue 1, 31-40

Abstract: The number of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases reported in England and Wales in the recent past seriously underestimates the number of recent AIDS diagnoses, because of substantial reporting delays. We examine two methods for estimating AIDS diagnoses, taking account of reporting delays. The first is a method based on conditional likelihood making minimal parametric assumptions, with confidence intervals assessed through bootstrapping. The second is a fully parametric Bayesian approach estimated by Gibbs sampling. We apply these methods to AIDS reports in England and Wales from July 1983 to December 1992, and we compare the results.

Date: 1994
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