A Note on Regional Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Projections

Sheila M. Gore, Barry G. Evans, Daniela De Angelis and Roland Salmon

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1994, vol. 157, issue 1, 57-68

Abstract: Separate acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) forecasts by exposure category were first published for England and Wales in 1990. A need for area as well as exposure‐category‐specific AIDS backcalculation can be suggested by geographical heterogeneity in the percentage of AIDS to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reports within exposure category; but feasibility depends on area by exposure‐category‐specific cumulative AIDS diagnoses. Separate projections of AIDS incidence for homosexual males in the Thames regions and the rest of England and Wales are indicated and feasible as shown. Within the rest of England and Wales, the regional similarities in the percentage of AIDS to HIV reports for homosexual males made it reasonable to assume proportionality of the regional subepidemics, and hence reasonable to apply scaling. Two straightforward methods of scaling are suggested, which differ only in the correction made for delayed regional reporting of AIDS diagnoses. Regional projections of AIDS cases infected by blood products should be based not on backcalculation but on the immunological monitoring of prevalent HIV‐infected individuals.

Date: 1994
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