What works?: selectivity models and meta‐analysis

J. Copas

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1999, vol. 162, issue 1, 95-109

Abstract: What works seeks to identify rehabilitative treatments which are successful in reducing the likelihood that offenders will reoffend. A large number of small case–control studies have been reported in the literature, but with conflicting results. Meta‐analysis has been used to reconcile these findings, but again with conflicting results. We reanalyse one of the published meta‐analyses in the corrections literature and argue the importance of specifically modelling heterogeneity and selection bias. A sensitivity approach is advocated, suggesting lower average effects and substantially increased measures of uncertainty. The method is tested on a medical example where independent confirmation from a large controlled trial is also available.

Date: 1999
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