Rating teams and analysing outcomes in one‐day and test cricket

P. E. Allsopp and Stephen R. Clarke

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2004, vol. 167, issue 4, 657-667

Abstract: Summary. Multiple linear regression techniques are applied to determine the relative batting and bowling strengths and a common home advantage for teams playing both innings of international one‐day cricket and the first innings of a test‐match. It is established that in both forms of the game Australia and South Africa were rated substantially above the other teams. It is also shown that home teams generally enjoyed a significant advantage. Using the relative batting and bowling strengths of teams, together with parameters that are associated with common home advantage, winning the toss and the establishment of a first‐innings lead, multinomial logistic regression techniques are applied to explore further how these factors critically affect outcomes of test‐matches. It is established that in test cricket a team's first‐innings batting and bowling strength, first‐innings lead, batting order and home advantage are strong predictors of a winning match outcome. Contrary to popular opinion, it is found that the team batting second in a test enjoys a significant advantage. Notably, the relative superiority of teams during the fourth innings of a test‐match, but not the third innings, is a strong predictor of a winning outcome. There is no evidence to suggest that teams generally gained a winning advantage as a result of winning the toss.

Date: 2004
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