Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a flexible generalized skew normal probability density function

Stefano Mazzuco and Bruno Scarpa

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2015, vol. 178, issue 1, 187-203

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="rssa12053-abs-0001">

Mixture probability density functions have recently been proposed to describe some fertility patterns characterized by a bimodal shape. These functions are adequate when the fertility pattern is actually bimodal, but they appear to be less useful when the shape of age-specific fertility rates is unimodal. A further model is proposed, based on flexible skew symmetric probability density functions. This model can fit symmetric and skew patterns as well as reflect humps that are observed in some fertility patterns. It is more parsimonious than mixture distributions and more flexible, showing a good fit with several shapes (bimodal or unimodal) of fertility patterns. Empirical evaluation of the model proposed and comparisons with other functions for Italian data from 1952 to 2003 and US data from 1933 to 2006 are also discussed.

Date: 2015
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