Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football

A. C. Titman, D. A. Costain, P. G. Ridall and K. Gregory

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2015, vol. 178, issue 3, 659-683

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="rssa12075-abs-0001">

A multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependences which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 football seasons and assess predictive capacity by using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and the bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, the award of a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalized team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.

Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rssa.2015.178.issue-3 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:178:y:2015:i:3:p:659-683

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-985X

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A is currently edited by A. Chevalier and L. Sharples

More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().