 A Bayesian approach to modelling subnational spatial dynamics of worldwide non‐state terrorism, 2010–2016André Python, Janine B. Illian, Charlotte M. Jones‐Todd and Marta Blangiardo Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2019, vol. 182, issue 1, 323-344 Abstract: Terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, as exemplified by the on‐going lethal attacks perpetrated by Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Al Qaeda in Yemen and Boko Haram in Nigeria. In response, states deploy various counterterrorism policies, the costs of which could be reduced through efficient preventive measures. Statistical models that can account for complex spatiotemporal dependences have not yet been applied, despite their potential for providing guidance to explain and prevent terrorism. To address this shortcoming, we employ hierarchical models in a Bayesian context, where the spatial random field is represented by a stochastic partial differential equation. Our main findings suggest that lethal terrorist attacks tend to generate more deaths in ethnically polarized areas and in locations within democratic countries. Furthermore, the number of lethal attacks increases close to large cities and in locations with higher levels of population density and human activity. Date: 2019 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:182:y:2019:i:1:p:323-344 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A is currently edited by A. Chevalier and L. Sharples More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC. |
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